silkywhisky
Ailsa Bay / Lowland

AILSA BAY

0.83× fair value NAS rating 4.7/5 · n=11
cheapest
€69.95
topdrinks
intrinsic
€92.28
N
3

Is it worth the price?

AILSA BAY is a Lowland single malt Scotch from the Ailsa Bay distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 4.7 out of 5 across 11 reviews. It is tracked at 3 retailers, ranging from €69.95 to €77.00, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €92.28. That is 0.83× the model estimate — almost exactly the quality-predicted price, with no meaningful brand premium.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
topdrinks €69.95
whisky.fr €76.90
whiskylodge €77.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.73 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Lowland
Distillery tier
Mid
Result
Predicted price
€92.28
Actual price (median)
€76.90
Multiple
0.83×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.10/cl × 70 cl)
€7.00
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.20
Cost floor
€16.70

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    no declared distinctive practices
    2 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    48.9% ABV; non-chill-filtered inferred from ABV; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    2 / 3
  • Ownership
    William Grant & Sons — independent or smaller group
    2 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 2009 (17 years of operation)
    1 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.7273/5 across 11 reviews
    2 / 3
Quality score
9 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.75
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€29.23
Actual price (median)
€76.90
Multiple
2.63×
Verdict band
brand premium

The two models disagree sharply here. The deal-score regression learns from peer prices that age and brand command €92.28 (0.83× the listed price), while the cost-and-quality methodology floors the bottle at €29.23 (2.63×). The gap is the brand premium the market pays beyond what materials, maturation and bottling integrity alone can justify.

Maturation context

Lowland · rolling 12 months: 1,443 mm at Penwhapple Reservoir (6 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,524 mm, +43.70% vs 1995-2024 median.