Is it worth the price?
LAGAVULIN 16 Years Old is an Islay single malt Scotch from the Lagavulin distillery, bottled at 16 years old. Tasters score it 4.9 out of 5 across 39 reviews. It is tracked at 4 retailers, ranging from €69.25 to €98.79, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €145.92. That is 0.60× the model estimate — well below what its age, strength and house predict, and one of the clearer value picks in the data. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. Of the 4 Lagavulin bottlings priced here, this is the strongest value.
Retailers tracked
| Retailer | Price |
|---|---|
| topdrinks | €69.25 |
| whiskylodge | €79.00 |
| whisky.fr | €95.00 |
| thewhiskyshop | €98.79 |
How we got this number
The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.
- Rating
- 4.92 / 5
- Age
- 16yo
- Region
- Islay
- Distillery tier
- Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
- Predicted price
- €145.92
- Actual price (median)
- €87.00
- Multiple
- 0.60×
- Verdict band
- hidden gem (≤ 0.80×)
Methodology estimate
The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.
- Production (€0.18/cl × 70 cl)
- €12.60
- Maturation (16 × €1.20/year)
- €33.86
- Cask premium (undeclared)
- +€0.00
- × ABV factor
- ×1.08
- Cost floor
- €49.94
- Process distinctnessno declared distinctive practices2 / 3
- Cask provenancecask type not declared on bottle0 / 3
- Bottling integrity43.0% ABV; chill-filtration not disclosed; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed1 / 3
- OwnershipDiageo (prestige range) — independent or smaller group2 / 3
- Heritagefounded 1816 (210 years of operation)3 / 3
- Reputation4.9231/5 across 39 reviews3 / 3
- Quality score
- 11 / 18
- Quality multiplier
- ×1.92
- Intrinsic value
- €95.72
- Actual price (median)
- €87.00
- Multiple
- 0.91×
- Verdict band
- fair value
Maturation context
Islay · rolling 12 months: 1,849 mm at Dippen (40 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,451 mm, +33.70% vs 1995-2024 median.
Other bottlings from Lagavulin
- LAGAVULIN 12 Years Old 12th Release Of €185.00 · 1.31×
- LAGAVULIN 8 Years Old €49.40 · 1.33×
- LAGAVULIN Distillers Edition €97.80 · 1.60×