silkywhisky
Lagavulin / Islay

LAGAVULIN 16 Years Old

0.44× hidden gem 16yo rating 4.9/5 · n=26
cheapest
€69.25
topdrinks
intrinsic
€186.29
N
4

Is it worth the price?

LAGAVULIN 16 Years Old is an Islay single malt Scotch from the Lagavulin distillery, bottled at 16 years old. Tasters score it 4.9 out of 5 across 26 reviews. It is tracked at 4 retailers, ranging from €69.25 to €98.55, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €186.29. That is 0.44× the model estimate — well below the quality-predicted price, and one of the clearer value picks in the data. Of the 3 Lagavulin bottlings priced here, this is the strongest value.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
topdrinks €69.25
whisky.fr €76.00
whiskylodge €89.00
thewhiskyshop €98.55

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.92 / 5
Age
16yo
Region
Islay
Distillery tier
Premium
Result
Predicted price
€186.29
Actual price (median)
€82.50
Multiple
0.44×
Verdict band
hidden gem (≤ 0.80×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.18/cl × 70 cl)
€12.60
Maturation (16 × €1.20/year)
€33.86
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.05
Cost floor
€48.78
Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    no declared distinctive practices
    2 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    43.0% ABV; chill-filtration not disclosed; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    1 / 3
  • Ownership
    Diageo (prestige range) — independent or smaller group
    2 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1816 (210 years of operation)
    3 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.9231/5 across 26 reviews
    3 / 3
Quality score
11 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.92
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€93.50
Actual price (median)
€82.50
Multiple
0.88×
Verdict band
fair value

Maturation context

Islay · rolling 12 months: 1,867 mm at Dippen (40 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,524 mm, +43.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Lagavulin