silkywhisky
Lagg / Island

LAGG Manzanilla Sherry Finish Small Batch

1.08× fair value NAS rating 4.7/5 · n=3
cheapest
€105.00
whisky.fr
intrinsic
€97.45
N
1

Is it worth the price?

LAGG Manzanilla Sherry Finish Small Batch is an Island single malt Scotch from the Lagg distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 4.7 out of 5 across 3 reviews. A single retailer lists it at €105.00, against a model fair price of around €97.45. That is 1.08× the model estimate — almost exactly what its age, strength and house predict, with no meaningful brand premium. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. Of the 3 Lagg bottlings priced here, this is the weakest value.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
whisky.fr €105.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.67 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Island
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€97.45
Actual price (median)
€105.00
Multiple
1.08×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.25/cl × 70 cl)
€17.50
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (ex sherry)
+€8.00
× ABV factor
×1.44
Cost floor
€46.69

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    no declared distinctive practices
    2 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    ex sherry
    1 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    57.6% ABV; non-chill-filtered inferred from ABV; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    3 / 3
  • Ownership
    Isle of Arran Distillers — independent or smaller group
    2 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 2019 (7 years of operation)
    0 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.6667/5 across 3 reviews
    2 / 3
Quality score
10 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.83
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€85.59
Actual price (median)
€105.00
Multiple
1.23×
Verdict band
mild premium

Maturation context

Island · rolling 12 months: 2,249 mm at Monyquil Farm (14 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,451 mm, +33.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Lagg