silkywhisky
Macallan / Speyside

MACALLAN (The) A Night on Earth The First Light

1.08× fair value NAS rating 5.0/5 · n=2
cheapest
€107.55
topdrinks
intrinsic
€105.96
N
3

Is it worth the price?

MACALLAN (The) A Night on Earth The First Light is a Speyside single malt Scotch from the Macallan distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 5.0 out of 5 across 2 reviews. It is tracked at 3 retailers, ranging from €107.55 to €119.00, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €105.96. That is 1.08× the model estimate — almost exactly the quality-predicted price, with no meaningful brand premium. It is one of 9 Macallan bottlings priced here; the others are compared below.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
topdrinks €107.55
thewhiskyshop €114.78
whisky.fr €119.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
5.00 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Speyside
Distillery tier
Premium
Result
Predicted price
€105.96
Actual price (median)
€114.78
Multiple
1.08×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.10/cl × 70 cl)
€7.00
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.05
Cost floor
€14.62

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    small stills (signature); curated sherry-cask program
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    43.0% ABV; chill-filtration not disclosed; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    1 / 3
  • Ownership
    Edrington — prestige-corporate
    0 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1824 (202 years of operation)
    3 / 3
  • Reputation
    5.0/5 across 2 reviews
    3 / 3
Quality score
8 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.67
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€24.36
Actual price (median)
€114.78
Multiple
4.71×
Verdict band
luxury premium

The two models disagree sharply here. The deal-score regression learns from peer prices that age and brand command €105.96 (1.08× the listed price), while the cost-and-quality methodology floors the bottle at €24.36 (4.71×). The gap is the brand premium the market pays beyond what materials, maturation and bottling integrity alone can justify.

Maturation context

Speyside · rolling 12 months: 765 mm at Aberlour (1 km). Scotland N rolling 12-month rainfall2,223 mm, +30.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Macallan