silkywhisky
Macallan / Speyside

MACALLAN (The) A Night on Earth The First Light

1.15× fair value NAS rating 5.0/5 · n=2
cheapest
€115.06
thewhiskyshop
intrinsic
€103.32
N
3

Is it worth the price?

MACALLAN (The) A Night on Earth The First Light is a Speyside single malt Scotch from the Macallan distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 5.0 out of 5 across 2 reviews. It is tracked at 3 retailers, ranging from €115.06 to €126.50, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €103.32. That is 1.15× the model estimate — almost exactly what its age, strength and house predict, with no meaningful brand premium. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. It is one of 9 Macallan bottlings priced here; the others are compared below.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
thewhiskyshop €115.06
whisky.fr €119.00
topdrinks €126.50

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
5.00 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Speyside
Distillery tier
Premium Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€103.32
Actual price (median)
€119.00
Multiple
1.15×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.10/cl × 70 cl)
€7.00
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.08
Cost floor
€14.96

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    small stills (signature); curated sherry-cask program
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    43.0% ABV; chill-filtration not disclosed; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    1 / 3
  • Ownership
    Edrington — prestige-corporate
    0 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1824 (202 years of operation)
    3 / 3
  • Reputation
    5.0/5 across 2 reviews
    2 / 3
Quality score
7 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.58
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€23.69
Actual price (median)
€119.00
Multiple
5.02×
Verdict band
luxury premium

The two models disagree sharply here. The deal-score regression learns from peer prices that age and brand command €103.32 (1.15× the listed price), while the cost-and-quality methodology floors the bottle at €23.69 (5.02×). The gap is the brand premium the market pays beyond what materials, maturation and bottling integrity alone can justify.

Maturation context

Speyside · rolling 12 months: 799 mm at Aberlour (1 km). Scotland N rolling 12-month rainfall2,298 mm, +33.30% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Macallan