silkywhisky
Royal Lochnagar

Royal Lochnagar 12 Years Old

1.10× fair value 12yo rating 4.1/5 · n=100
cheapest
€49.00
whiskylodge
intrinsic
€47.02
N
3

Is it worth the price?

Royal Lochnagar 12 Years Old is a single malt Scotch from the Royal Lochnagar distillery, bottled at 12 years old. Tasters score it 4.1 out of 5 across 100 reviews. It is tracked at 3 retailers, ranging from €49.00 to €56.81, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €47.02. That is 1.10× the model estimate — almost exactly the quality-predicted price, with no meaningful brand premium.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
whiskylodge €49.00
topdrinks €51.95
thewhiskyshop €56.81

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.09 / 5
Age
12yo
Region
—
Distillery tier
Budget
Result
Predicted price
€47.02
Actual price (median)
€51.95
Multiple
1.10×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.25/cl × 70 cl)
€17.50
Maturation (12 × €1.20/year)
€21.64
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.00
Cost floor
€39.14
Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    worm tubs (paper); tiny prestige output
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    ABV not declared; chill-filtration not disclosed; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    0 / 3
  • Ownership
    Diageo (prestige range) — prestige-corporate
    0 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1845 (181 years of operation)
    3 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.09/5 across 100 reviews
    0 / 3
Quality score
4 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.33
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€52.19
Actual price (median)
€51.95
Multiple
1.00×
Verdict band
fair value

Maturation context

Highland · rolling 12 months: 911 mm at Gairnshiel (7 km). Scotland N rolling 12-month rainfall2,223 mm, +30.70% vs 1995-2024 median.