silkywhisky
Balvenie / Speyside

BALVENIE (The) 12 Years Old Single Barrel First Fill

0.88× fair value 12yo rating 4.5/5 · n=2
cheapest
€87.00
topdrinks
intrinsic
€100.80
N
2

Is it worth the price?

BALVENIE (The) 12 Years Old Single Barrel First Fill is a Speyside single malt Scotch from the Balvenie distillery, bottled at 12 years old. Tasters score it 4.5 out of 5 across 2 reviews. It is tracked at 2 retailers, ranging from €87.00 to €89.49, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €100.80. That is 0.88× the model estimate — almost exactly what its age, strength and house predict, with no meaningful brand premium. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. It is one of 9 Balvenie bottlings priced here; the others are compared below.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
topdrinks €87.00
thewhiskyshop €89.49

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.50 / 5
Age
12yo
Region
Speyside
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€100.80
Actual price (median)
€88.25
Multiple
0.88×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.14/cl × 70 cl)
€9.80
Maturation (12 × €1.20/year)
€21.64
Cask premium (first fill bourbon)
+€3.00
× ABV factor
×1.19
Cost floor
€41.16
Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    partial estate barley / floor malting on site; partial floor malting; own cooperage; on-site coppersmith
    3 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    first fill bourbon (single cask); partial single-estate malt
    3 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    47.8% ABV; non-chill-filtered inferred from ABV; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    3 / 3
  • Ownership
    William Grant & Sons (family corporate) — production-led corporate
    1 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1892 (134 years of operation)
    2 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.5/5 across 2 reviews
    3 / 3
Quality score
15 / 18
Quality multiplier
×2.25
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€92.61
Actual price (median)
€88.25
Multiple
0.95×
Verdict band
fair value

Maturation context

Speyside · rolling 12 months: 799 mm at Aberlour (5 km). Scotland N rolling 12-month rainfall2,298 mm, +33.30% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Balvenie