silkywhisky
Glenlivet / Speyside

GLENLIVET (The) Captain's Reserve

0.81× fair value NAS rating 4.6/5 · n=5
cheapest
€40.25
topdrinks
intrinsic
€73.39
N
3

Is it worth the price?

GLENLIVET (The) Captain's Reserve is a Speyside single malt Scotch from the Glenlivet distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 4.6 out of 5 across 5 reviews. It is tracked at 3 retailers, ranging from €40.25 to €76.52, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €73.39. That is 0.81× the model estimate — almost exactly the quality-predicted price, with no meaningful brand premium. It is one of 7 Glenlivet bottlings priced here; the others are compared below.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
topdrinks €40.25
whisky.fr €59.50
thewhiskyshop €76.52

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.60 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Speyside
Distillery tier
Mid
Result
Predicted price
€73.39
Actual price (median)
€59.50
Multiple
0.81×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.10/cl × 70 cl)
€7.00
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.00
Cost floor
€13.92

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    large-volume standard production; minor closures during wars
    0 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    40.0% ABV; chill-filtration not disclosed; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    0 / 3
  • Ownership
    Pernod Ricard / Chivas Brothers — production-led corporate
    1 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1824 (202 years of operation); closures during wars
    2 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.6/5 across 5 reviews
    1 / 3
Quality score
4 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.33
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€18.56
Actual price (median)
€59.50
Multiple
3.21×
Verdict band
brand premium

The two models disagree sharply here. The deal-score regression learns from peer prices that age and brand command €73.39 (0.81× the listed price), while the cost-and-quality methodology floors the bottle at €18.56 (3.21×). The gap is the brand premium the market pays beyond what materials, maturation and bottling integrity alone can justify.

Maturation context

Speyside · rolling 12 months: 727 mm at Delnashaugh (6 km). Scotland N rolling 12-month rainfall2,223 mm, +30.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Glenlivet