silkywhisky
Kilchoman / Islay

KILCHOMAN Machir Bay Cask Strength

0.56× hidden gem NAS rating 5.0/5 · n=2
cheapest
€79.90
whisky.fr
intrinsic
€141.77
N
1

Is it worth the price?

KILCHOMAN Machir Bay Cask Strength is an Islay single malt Scotch from the Kilchoman distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 5.0 out of 5 across 2 reviews. A single retailer lists it at €79.90, against a model fair price of around €141.77. That is 0.56× the model estimate — well below what its age, strength and house predict, and one of the clearer value picks in the data. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. Of the 14 Kilchoman bottlings priced here, this is the strongest value.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
whisky.fr €79.90

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
5.00 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Islay
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€141.77
Actual price (median)
€79.90
Multiple
0.56×
Verdict band
hidden gem (≤ 0.80×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.25/cl × 70 cl)
€17.50
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.45
Cost floor
€35.47

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    partial estate barley / floor malting on site; on-site floor malting; field-to-bottle 100% Islay range
    2 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle; partial single-estate malt
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    58.1% ABV; cask strength (declared); E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    3 / 3
  • Ownership
    Anthony Wills (founder family) — independent or smaller group
    2 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 2005 (21 years of operation)
    1 / 3
  • Reputation
    5.0/5 across 2 reviews
    2 / 3
Quality score
10 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.83
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€65.03
Actual price (median)
€79.90
Multiple
1.23×
Verdict band
mild premium

Maturation context

Islay · rolling 12 months: 1,849 mm at Dippen (63 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,451 mm, +33.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Kilchoman