silkywhisky
Aberlour / Speyside

ABERLOUR 10 Years Old Forest Reserve

1.07× fair value 10yo rating 4.3/5 · n=9
cheapest
€37.95
topdrinks
intrinsic
€38.48
N
3

Is it worth the price?

ABERLOUR 10 Years Old Forest Reserve is a Speyside single malt Scotch from the Aberlour distillery, bottled at 10 years old. Tasters score it 4.3 out of 5 across 9 reviews. It is tracked at 3 retailers, ranging from €37.95 to €41.00, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €38.48. That is 1.07× the model estimate — almost exactly what its age, strength and house predict, with no meaningful brand premium. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. Of the 8 Aberlour bottlings priced here, this is the weakest value.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
topdrinks €37.95
whisky.fr €41.00
whiskylodge €41.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.33 / 5
Age
10yo
Region
Speyside
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€38.48
Actual price (median)
€41.00
Multiple
1.07×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.14/cl × 70 cl)
€9.80
Maturation (10 × €1.20/year)
€16.69
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.00
Cost floor
€26.49
Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    standard production line; no declared distinctive practices
    0 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    40.0% ABV; chill-filtration not disclosed; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    0 / 3
  • Ownership
    Pernod Ricard / Chivas Brothers — production-led corporate
    1 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1879 (147 years of operation)
    2 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.3333/5 across 9 reviews
    2 / 3
Quality score
5 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.42
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€37.53
Actual price (median)
€41.00
Multiple
1.09×
Verdict band
fair value

Maturation context

Speyside · rolling 12 months: 799 mm at Aberlour (2 km). Scotland N rolling 12-month rainfall2,298 mm, +33.30% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Aberlour