silkywhisky
Arran / Island

ARRAN 10 Years Old

1.15× fair value 10yo rating 4.7/5 · n=71
cheapest
€39.55
topdrinks
intrinsic
€49.03
N
4

Is it worth the price?

ARRAN 10 Years Old is an Island single malt Scotch from the Arran distillery, bottled at 10 years old. Tasters score it 4.7 out of 5 across 71 reviews. It is tracked at 4 retailers, ranging from €39.55 to €57.53, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €49.03. That is 1.15× the model estimate — almost exactly what its age, strength and house predict, with no meaningful brand premium. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. It is one of 14 Arran bottlings priced here; the others are compared below.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
topdrinks €39.55
whiskylodge €56.00
whisky.fr €57.00
thewhiskyshop €57.53

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.69 / 5
Age
10yo
Region
Island
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€49.03
Actual price (median)
€56.50
Multiple
1.15×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.25/cl × 70 cl)
€17.50
Maturation (10 × €1.20/year)
€16.69
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.15
Cost floor
€39.32
Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    independent revival distillery; classic methods
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    46.0% ABV; non-chill-filtered inferred from ABV; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    2 / 3
  • Ownership
    Isle of Arran Distillers (independent) — independent or smaller group
    2 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1995 (31 years of operation)
    1 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.6901/5 across 71 reviews
    2 / 3
Quality score
8 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.67
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€65.53
Actual price (median)
€56.50
Multiple
0.86×
Verdict band
fair value

Maturation context

Island · rolling 12 months: 2,249 mm at Monyquil Farm (15 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,451 mm, +33.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Arran