silkywhisky
Arran / Island

ARRAN Barrel Reserve

0.71× hidden gem NAS rating 4.7/5 · n=25
cheapest
€31.95
topdrinks
intrinsic
€52.63
N
3

Is it worth the price?

ARRAN Barrel Reserve is an Island single malt Scotch from the Arran distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 4.7 out of 5 across 25 reviews. It is tracked at 3 retailers, ranging from €31.95 to €40.68, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €52.63. That is 0.71× the model estimate — well below what its age, strength and house predict, and one of the clearer value picks in the data. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. Of the 14 Arran bottlings priced here, this is the strongest value.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
topdrinks €31.95
whisky.fr €37.50
thewhiskyshop €40.68

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.68 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Island
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€52.63
Actual price (median)
€37.50
Multiple
0.71×
Verdict band
hidden gem (≤ 0.80×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.25/cl × 70 cl)
€17.50
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.08
Cost floor
€26.25

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    independent revival distillery; classic methods
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    43.0% ABV; chill-filtration not disclosed; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    1 / 3
  • Ownership
    Isle of Arran Distillers (independent) — independent or smaller group
    2 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1995 (31 years of operation)
    1 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.68/5 across 25 reviews
    2 / 3
Quality score
7 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.58
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€41.57
Actual price (median)
€37.50
Multiple
0.90×
Verdict band
fair value

Maturation context

Island · rolling 12 months: 2,249 mm at Monyquil Farm (15 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,451 mm, +33.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Arran