silkywhisky
Arran / Island

ARRAN 15 Years Old 2009 Re-Fill Sherry Hogshead 09/867 Itinéraires

0.89× fair value 15yo rating 4.0/5 · n=1
cheapest
€159.00
whisky.fr
intrinsic
€179.23
N
1

Is it worth the price?

ARRAN 15 Years Old 2009 Re-Fill Sherry Hogshead 09/867 Itinéraires is an Island single malt Scotch from the Arran distillery, bottled at 15 years old. Tasters score it 4.0 out of 5 across 1 reviews. A single retailer lists it at €159.00, against a model fair price of around €179.23. That is 0.89× the model estimate — almost exactly what its age, strength and house predict, with no meaningful brand premium. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. It is one of 14 Arran bottlings priced here; the others are compared below.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
whisky.fr €159.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.00 / 5
Age
15yo
Region
Island
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€179.23
Actual price (median)
€159.00
Multiple
0.89×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.25/cl × 70 cl)
€17.50
Maturation (15 × €1.20/year)
€30.48
Cask premium (ex sherry)
+€8.00
× ABV factor
×1.44
Cost floor
€80.89
Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    independent revival distillery; classic methods
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    ex sherry
    1 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    57.8% ABV; non-chill-filtered inferred from ABV; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    3 / 3
  • Ownership
    Isle of Arran Distillers (independent) — independent or smaller group
    2 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1995 (31 years of operation)
    1 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.0/5 across 1 review
    2 / 3
Quality score
10 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.83
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€148.31
Actual price (median)
€159.00
Multiple
1.07×
Verdict band
fair value

Maturation context

Island · rolling 12 months: 2,249 mm at Monyquil Farm (15 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,451 mm, +33.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Arran