silkywhisky
Caol Ila / Islay

CAOL ILA 2012 The Disappearance Chess Investigation Series

1.94× mild premium NAS rating 2.0/5 · n=1
cheapest
€140.00
whisky.fr
intrinsic
€72.31
N
1

Is it worth the price?

CAOL ILA 2012 The Disappearance Chess Investigation Series is an Islay single malt Scotch from the Caol Ila distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 2.0 out of 5 across 1 reviews. A single retailer lists it at €140.00, against a model fair price of around €72.31. That is 1.94× the model estimate — a mild premium over what its age, strength and house predict. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. It is one of 12 Caol Ila bottlings priced here; the others are compared below.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
whisky.fr €140.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
2.00 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Islay
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€72.31
Actual price (median)
€140.00
Multiple
1.94×
Verdict band
mild premium (1.20× < … ≤ 2.00×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.14/cl × 70 cl)
€9.80
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.15
Cost floor
€19.23

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    large-volume Islay production; standard methods
    0 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    46.0% ABV; non-chill-filtered inferred from ABV; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    2 / 3
  • Ownership
    Diageo — production-led corporate
    1 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1846 (180 years of operation)
    3 / 3
  • Reputation
    2.0/5 across 1 review
    0 / 3
Quality score
6 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.50
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€28.84
Actual price (median)
€140.00
Multiple
4.85×
Verdict band
luxury premium

Maturation context

Islay · rolling 12 months: 1,593 mm at Lingerton (46 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,451 mm, +33.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Caol Ila