silkywhisky
Ardbeg / Islay

ARDBEG 15 Years Old Anthology The Beithir's Tale

1.03× fair value 15yo rating 5.0/5 · n=1
cheapest
€149.92
thewhiskyshop
intrinsic
€144.94
N
2

Is it worth the price?

ARDBEG 15 Years Old Anthology The Beithir's Tale is an Islay single malt Scotch from the Ardbeg distillery, bottled at 15 years old. Tasters score it 5.0 out of 5 across 1 reviews. It is tracked at 2 retailers, ranging from €149.92 to €150.00, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €144.94. That is 1.03× the model estimate — almost exactly what its age, strength and house predict, with no meaningful brand premium. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. It is one of 12 Ardbeg bottlings priced here; the others are compared below.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
thewhiskyshop €149.92
whisky.fr €150.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
5.00 / 5
Age
15yo
Region
Islay
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€144.94
Actual price (median)
€149.96
Multiple
1.03×
Verdict band
fair value (0.80× < … ≤ 1.20×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.18/cl × 70 cl)
€12.60
Maturation (15 × €1.20/year)
€30.48
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.15
Cost floor
€49.54
Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    heavily peated tradition; dunnage warehousing; closed 1981-1989
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    46.0% ABV; non-chill-filtered inferred from ABV; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    2 / 3
  • Ownership
    LVMH (via Glenmorangie) — prestige-corporate
    0 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1815 (211 years of operation); closed 1981-1989
    2 / 3
  • Reputation
    5.0/5 across 1 review
    2 / 3
Quality score
7 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.58
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€78.45
Actual price (median)
€149.96
Multiple
1.91×
Verdict band
mild premium

Maturation context

Islay · rolling 12 months: 1,849 mm at Dippen (39 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,451 mm, +33.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Ardbeg