silkywhisky
Ardbeg / Islay

ARDBEG An Oa

0.54× hidden gem NAS rating 4.8/5 · n=73
cheapest
€55.95
topdrinks
intrinsic
€109.31
N
4

Is it worth the price?

ARDBEG An Oa is an Islay single malt Scotch from the Ardbeg distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 4.8 out of 5 across 73 reviews. It is tracked at 4 retailers, ranging from €55.95 to €66.08, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €109.31. That is 0.54× the model estimate — well below the quality-predicted price, and one of the clearer value picks in the data. Of the 12 Ardbeg bottlings priced here, this is the strongest value.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
topdrinks €55.95
whiskylodge €58.50
whisky.fr €59.90
thewhiskyshop €66.08

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.78 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Islay
Distillery tier
Premium
Result
Predicted price
€109.31
Actual price (median)
€59.20
Multiple
0.54×
Verdict band
hidden gem (≤ 0.80×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.18/cl × 70 cl)
€12.60
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.10
Cost floor
€21.47

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    heavily peated tradition; dunnage warehousing; closed 1981-1989
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    46.6% ABV; non-chill-filtered inferred from ABV; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    2 / 3
  • Ownership
    LVMH (via Glenmorangie) — prestige-corporate
    0 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1815 (211 years of operation); closed 1981-1989
    2 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.7808/5 across 73 reviews
    3 / 3
Quality score
8 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.67
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€35.79
Actual price (median)
€59.20
Multiple
1.65×
Verdict band
mild premium

The two models disagree sharply here. The deal-score regression learns from peer prices that age and brand command €109.31 (0.54× the listed price), while the cost-and-quality methodology floors the bottle at €35.79 (1.65×). The gap is the brand premium the market pays beyond what materials, maturation and bottling integrity alone can justify.

Maturation context

Islay · rolling 12 months: 1,867 mm at Dippen (39 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,524 mm, +43.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

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