silkywhisky
Ardbeg / Islay

ARDBEG Corryvreckan

0.65× hidden gem NAS rating 4.8/5 · n=53
cheapest
€83.55
topdrinks
intrinsic
€147.39
N
3

Is it worth the price?

ARDBEG Corryvreckan is an Islay single malt Scotch from the Ardbeg distillery, released without an age statement. Tasters score it 4.8 out of 5 across 53 reviews. It is tracked at 3 retailers, ranging from €83.55 to €99.00, while the valuation model estimates a fair price of around €147.39. That is 0.65× the model estimate — well below what its age, strength and house predict, and one of the clearer value picks in the data. The estimate is fitted on age, bottling strength and the distillery's other prices; community ratings add no measurable signal to it, so this is not a quality judgement. Typical error is around ±65%, so read the verdict as indicative and trust it most at the extremes. It is one of 12 Ardbeg bottlings priced here; the others are compared below.

Retailers tracked

Retailer Price
topdrinks €83.55
thewhiskyshop €96.46
whisky.fr €99.00

How we got this number

The valuation model predicts a price from this bottling's inputs. The multiple is the actual market price divided by that prediction.

Inputs
Rating
4.77 / 5
Age
No age statement
Region
Islay
Distillery tier
Mid Label only — set from the distillery’s median price, not used by the model.
Result
Predicted price
€147.39
Actual price (median)
€96.46
Multiple
0.65×
Verdict band
hidden gem (≤ 0.80×)

See the regression's coefficients →

Methodology estimate

The deterministic model from methodology.md: production cost per litre × bottle size, plus maturation cost per year, plus a cask premium, times an ABV factor — then multiplied by a quality grade summed across six 0–3 axes.

Cost floor
Production (€0.18/cl × 70 cl)
€12.60
Maturation (NAS→5 × €1.20/year)
€6.92
Cask premium (undeclared)
+€0.00
× ABV factor
×1.43
Cost floor
€27.87

NAS treated as 5 years for maturation cost (paper convention).

Quality grade (six 0–3 axes)
  • Process distinctness
    heavily peated tradition; dunnage warehousing; closed 1981-1989
    1 / 3
  • Cask provenance
    cask type not declared on bottle
    0 / 3
  • Bottling integrity
    57.1% ABV; non-chill-filtered inferred from ABV; E150a caramel colouring not disclosed
    3 / 3
  • Ownership
    LVMH (via Glenmorangie) — prestige-corporate
    0 / 3
  • Heritage
    founded 1815 (211 years of operation); closed 1981-1989
    2 / 3
  • Reputation
    4.7736/5 across 53 reviews
    2 / 3
Quality score
8 / 18
Quality multiplier
×1.67
Intrinsic and multiple
Intrinsic value
€46.44
Actual price (median)
€96.46
Multiple
2.08×
Verdict band
brand premium

The two models disagree sharply here. The deal-score regression learns from peer prices that age and brand command €147.39 (0.65× the listed price), while the cost-and-quality methodology floors the bottle at €46.44 (2.08×). The gap is the brand premium the market pays beyond what materials, maturation and bottling integrity alone can justify.

Maturation context

Islay · rolling 12 months: 1,849 mm at Dippen (39 km). Scotland W rolling 12-month rainfall2,451 mm, +33.70% vs 1995-2024 median.

Other bottlings from Ardbeg